Hi Joanie
Several years I unsuccessfully tried to promote using MKT temperature to see how a temperature excursion would affect the life of a vaccine. Calculating the MKT temperature in combination with the Arrenhenius graphs you could find the percent of life lost for vaccines of differing sensitivities for the temperature profile in your example. I don't think there is another way to quantitatively see the effect of an excursion on the life of a vaccine.
Since the the loss of life increases exponentialy at higher temperatures it is hard to visually see the consequences of a temperature excursion by looking at a graph. There may be instances, for example where a system has a bad battery and each night the temperature would go above 10 Deg C. Using an MKT analysis you could find that the excursion has a negligible effect on the life of a vaccine and fixing the battery could become a lower priority.
Larry Schlussler PhD
Sun Frost
My new email address [email protected]